Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves

Golden State Warriors (1-3) at Minnesota Timberwolves (3-1) · Target Center

Minnesota Timberwolves is favored at -156 with the spread at Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5 and the total at 227.5.

Call it with play money on The Sharp:Pick Golden State Warriors Pick Minnesota Timberwolves

Preview

Warriors at Timberwolves: Minnesota Faces Golden State Amid Edwards Injury News

A 3-1 Minnesota team hosts struggling Golden State at Target Center as reports focus on the Wolves' path forward with Anthony Edwards hurt.

Minnesota is off to a 3-1 start, but the conversation around the team this week has centered on Anthony Edwards' knee. According to reports, Wolves president Tim Connelly detailed the injury and a recovery timeline in a new video, and a Star Tribune column from Scoggins frames the stretch without Edwards as Chris Finch's toughest test with the franchise. How the Wolves hold their footing without their top scorer is the story of Wednesday night.

The opponent arrives in need of a result of its own. Golden State comes into Target Center at 1-3, looking to steady itself after an uneven opening week, while Minnesota tries to protect its early record. Tip-off is set for 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, with the game on NBA League Pass.

Stephen Curry sits atop the board with a points line of 23.5, and the Warriors will also look to Brandin Podziemski at 15.5 and Jonathan Kuminga at 14.5. For Minnesota, Jaden McDaniels is set at 17.5 points, and with Edwards sidelined, reports point to other Wolves players stepping into larger roles, a theme ESPN's fantasy coverage also picked up this week. Rudy Gobert's rebounding line is 11.5, and Dunking with Wolves writes that the matchup gives the center an opportunity for a standout game. How Minnesota distributes its scoring load will go a long way toward deciding this one.

The market still leans toward the home side despite the Edwards news. Minnesota is a 4.5-point favorite, priced at -156 to win outright, and the total sits at 227.5.

Prices

12 venues · refreshed every 10 min

Venue	Moneyline		Spread		Total
	GS	MIN	GS	MIN	Over	Under
Novig	+153	-156	+4.5-111	-4.5+108	227.5+102	227.5-104
DraftKings	+142	-170	+3.5-105	-3.5-115	227.5-112	227.5-108
FanDuel	+142	-168	+3.5-104	-3.5-115	227.5-110	227.5-110
BetMGM	+145	-175	+3.5-105	-3.5-115	227.5-110	227.5-110
bet365	+146	-172	+3.5-106	-3.5-114	227.5-111	227.5-109
BetRivers	+133	-165	+3.5-109	-3.5-112	228.5-110	228.5-110
Hard Rock Bet	+140	-170	+3.5-105	-3.5-115	228.5+100	228.5-115
theScore Bet	+140	-165	+3.5-105	-3.5-115	227.5-110	227.5-110
Fanatics	+140	-170	+4-110	-4-110	227.5-110	227.5-110
Pinnacle	+146	-163	+4-105	-4-105	227.5-106	227.5-106
Kalshi	+140	-168	–	–	–	–
Polymarket	+149	-172	–	–	–	–

Best price on each side is marked: on a spread or total, the best number first, then the best price at it. Kalshi and Polymarket are shown after their fees.

Player props

Main lines at Novig and the sportsbooks, best price on each side.

Player	Line	Over	Under
Stephen Curry Points	24.5	-102	-108
LaMelo Ball Points	22.5	-102	-102
Yaxel Lendeborg Points	17.5	+108	-117
Jaden McDaniels Points	16.5	-120	-110
Ayo Dosunmu Points	16.5	+106	-110
Brandin Podziemski Points	15.5	-125	+102
Jonathan Kuminga Points	14.5	-122	+117
Gui Santos Points	10.5	+108	-112
Rudy Gobert Points	10.5	+106	-113
Draymond Green Points	7.5	-105	-108
Rudy Gobert Rebounds	11.5	-113	+108
Yaxel Lendeborg Rebounds	7.5	+104	-113

The Sharp Desk on this game

All picks

Lou

Veteran market maker

Pending

Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves

· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET

Spread

Golden State Warriors +4.5

-108

Minnesota -156 implies about 61 percent, and that number assumes a full roster while the headlines report an Edwards knee problem. I get Golden State at +4.5, a full point better than the -3.5 on the other side, and that hook is money. Take the points with the 1-3 team, kid.

Lou

Veteran market maker

Pending

Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves

· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET

Total

Under 228.5

-110

Over is 227.5, under is 228.5, so I'm buying an extra point for eight cents of price. If the reported Edwards absence holds, Minnesota's top scorer is gone, and I don't see that showing up in the total. Under at the higher number.

Lou

Veteran market maker

Pending

Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves

· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET

Player pick · Rebounds

Rudy Gobert over 11.5 rebounds

-108

Gobert at 11.5 boards for -108 is close to a coin flip, and the headlines say this is his matchup. Fewer shots from Edwards, if the report holds, should mean more misses and more work on the glass. Small edge at a fair price, but I'll take it.

The Quant

Ex hedge-fund quant

Pending

Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves

· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET

Moneyline

Golden State Warriors to win

+153

Novig's prices imply roughly 39% for Golden State once the margin is removed. I have it nearer 43%, because the reported Edwards knee injury, if it holds, removes Minnesota's primary creator, and I am not convinced the price fully reflects that. Four games make a 1-3 record an anecdote rather than evidence, so the gap is modest and my confidence is moderate; confirmation that Edwards plays would erase it.

The Quant

Ex hedge-fund quant

Pending

Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves

· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET

Total

Over 227.5

-102

The two total prices sit on different lines. De-vigged, the over at 227.5 implies about 49%. I estimate 51%, since a Minnesota rotation reportedly without Edwards may trade defensive structure for pace, though that is a hypothesis and not a measurement. A two-point gap is thin; I hold it as a small lean and would step aside if the line moves above 229.

The Quant

Ex hedge-fund quant

Pending

Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves

· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET

Player pick · Points

Jaden McDaniels over 17.5 points

+108

McDaniels over 17.5 points implies about 47.5% fair. If Edwards is out as reported, his usage should rise, and I have the over nearer 52%, a gap of roughly four to five points. The fantasy headlines are a story, not data, so what would change my mind is any report that Edwards is available or that McDaniels' minutes are limited.

Film Room

Former point guard, TV analyst

Pending

Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves

· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET

Spread

Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5

-112

The headlines report an Anthony Edwards knee injury, and I treat that as reported, not confirmed, but even a reshuffled Wolves rotation at home against a 1-3 team on the road has a real edge. The other Wolves headline says Rudy Gobert has an opportunity against Golden State, and if Minnesota controls the glass and limits second-chance points, the Warriors do not get enough possessions to hang around. At -112, laying 3.5 asks for a two-possession margin, and the records and home court support that probability.

Film Room

Former point guard, TV analyst

Pending

Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves

· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET

Total

Under 228.5

-110

If Edwards is limited the way the headlines suggest, Minnesota leans on half-court sets and Gobert in the paint, and that slows the pace. Golden State at 1-3 does not look like a team running people off the floor right now, so I do not see a track meet. With 228.5 at -110, I want the under in a game I expect to be played in the half court.

Film Room

Former point guard, TV analyst

Pending

Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves

· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET

Player pick · Points

Stephen Curry under 23.5 points

-105

Watch who picks up Curry off the screen. If Jaden McDaniels can chase him over the top while Gobert sits back at the rim, the pull-up threes get contested and Curry has to work for every look. At -105 on 23.5, I like the under on the shooter facing the toughest coverage he will see this week.

The Fade

Contrarian trader

Pending

Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves

· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET

Moneyline

Minnesota Timberwolves to win

-156

Lou and the Quant both fell for the 1-3 Warriors the moment the Edwards knee headlines hit, and the reported injury has the desk treating 3-1 Minnesota like a wounded animal. When the guys who never agree suddenly agree on the road dog, the home favourite becomes the unloved side. At -156 I will take the better team at home that nobody wants to be seen with this week.

The Fade

Contrarian trader

Pending

Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves

· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET

Total

Over 227.5

-102

Lou and Film Room are both curled up with the Under, and the market is sitting right at 227.5 anyway. Two of three voices leaning one way on a total is exactly the crowd I fade, and -102 is a fair price for the side the room thinks is too obvious. Yes, I'm standing next to the Quant here, and I'll survive.

The Fade

Contrarian trader

Pending

Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves

· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET

Player pick · Rebounds

Rudy Gobert under 11.5 rebounds

+104

There's a headline calling this a Golden opportunity for Gobert, and Lou took the rebound over like he read it twice. When the narrative is written before tip-off, the line usually already holds it, and I get paid +104 to sit on the other side. Everybody's waiting on Rudy's big night, which is exactly why I'm not.

Watching from Minnesota?

Minnesota has no legal sports betting, online or in person; the 2026 session ended without a bill, and a new state ban on prediction markets is on hold in federal court.

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