The Timber LineTimberwolves odds, priced everywhere, with the math shown.
Four analysts with four very different philosophies. Each makes two game picks and one player pick every week, priced at the best number available, and every pick is graded against the final.
“Sit down, kid. I've watched every price move since 1987.”
“Every price is a probability. I only want the ones that are wrong.”
“Pull up the tape. The matchup decides it.”
“Whatever the crowd loves this week, I'm against it.”
Sit down, kid. I've watched every price move since 1987.
Free, with play money on The Sharp. Novig's price beside each side.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Miami Heat· Wed, Oct 21 · 7:30 PM ET
Two hundred forty and a half in October is a number built on hope, kid. Early-season rotations aren't settled, legs aren't there, and the market loves to shade totals up when it hasn't seen enough. I'll sit under the half-point and let them prove they can run it up.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Miami Heat· Wed, Oct 21 · 7:30 PM ETThe spread price implies 50% for Minnesota +1.5, and the moneyline implies about 48% for an outright win, so this is close to a coin flip with a cushion. I have the Wolves covering nearer 53%, mostly because the half point and a one-possession line favour the side getting points. Confidence is modest because October form is barely a sample, and a move toward Miami before tip would make me reconsider.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Miami Heat· Wed, Oct 21 · 7:30 PM ETOpening week, legs are fresh, and neither rotation has settled its defensive coverages yet, so expect miscommunication on switches and plenty of open looks in transition. When two teams are still learning who rotates where on the pick-and-roll, scoring tends to run ahead of the number. At 240.5 the price is high, but early-season defense is usually the last thing to come together, and I'll take the over at -110.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Miami Heat· Wed, Oct 21 · 7:30 PM ETA Wolves desk loving the Wolves catching points in Miami, how shocking. The line is basically a shrug at Heat -1.5, so I'm taking the home side precisely because the room is getting sentimental about the road team. Hometown love is a feeling, not a probability.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Orlando Magic· Fri, Oct 23 · 7:00 PM ETHome court in a near coin-flip is worth a point and change, and that's about what Orlando is dealing. At +102 I get paid plus money on what I make roughly a 49 to 50 percent shot, and I'll take that over laying 110 for the point and a half. Small edge, but small edges are the only kind there are.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Orlando Magic· Fri, Oct 23 · 7:00 PM ETThe market implies 50% on the under at 234.5. I have it closer to 53%, since that number looks high for two teams this early, before offences have settled into rhythm. The edge is small, and a few high-scoring openers could make it look wrong, but a handful of games is not enough to reprice a total.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Orlando Magic· Fri, Oct 23 · 7:00 PM ETThis is the second stop of a road swing for Minnesota, and Orlando gets to play this one at home with a crowd behind them. Early in the year, home teams usually get the whistle and the energy, and a road side two games into a trip tends to lose its legs on the glass by the fourth quarter. At 1.5 points the market is asking Orlando to win by two, essentially a coin flip with home court built in, and I like the Magic at -110.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Orlando Magic· Fri, Oct 23 · 7:00 PM ETThe Quant likes the Under in Orlando, which means a spreadsheet decided this game is going to be a grind. A 234.5 total between two teams with a pick'em spread is a coin flip on pace, and I'd rather own the side the smart money already talked itself out of. Let the model sweat the fourth quarter.
· Sun, Oct 25 · 7:00 PM ETMinus 166 on the moneyline says about 62 percent, and that squares with a 3, not a 3.5. That hook sits right on the most common margin in the sport, and I'm not giving it away for free. Wolves come home off a two-game road swing. I'll take the visitor and the half-point.
· Sun, Oct 25 · 7:00 PM ETAfter removing the vig, the moneyline implies 60% for Minnesota at home. A -3.5 line with home court looks short to me, and I put the win probability nearer 64%. A four-point gap is worth holding, but I would drop it if the line moved toward Toronto or I learned of meaningful lineup news before tip.
· Sun, Oct 25 · 7:00 PM ETMinnesota comes home Sunday after two road games, sleeping in its own beds, while Toronto is the team traveling into a building that should be loud early in the season. Home floor plus a couple of days to clean up the pick-and-roll coverage is the kind of edge that turns a close game into a two-possession win. The moneyline at -166 is expensive, so I would rather hold the Wolves at -3.5 for -110 and get paid for the home-court case.
· Sun, Oct 25 · 7:00 PM ETThe Quant and Film Room both lined up behind the Wolves at home, so naturally I'm taking Toronto outright at +140. That price says the Raptors win this roughly four times in ten, and a team nobody on this desk wants to be seen with doesn't need much to clear that. Ugly team, plus money, beautiful position.
Novig prices
